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Geopolitics of Natural Gas
James A. Baker III Institute for Public Policy and
The Stanford Program on Energy and Sustainable Development
May 26-27, 2004

The Energy Forum of the James A. Baker III Institute for Public Policy and the Stanford Program on Energy and Sustainable Development will present their new study on the geopolitical consequences of a major shift to natural gas in world energy markets. The study includes an innovative World Gas Trade Model (WGTM) and detailed historical political case studies of major gas infrastructure projects.

Case Study Working Papers Available Under Publications
View Conference WebCast here

Agenda

Wednesday, May 26, 2004

8:30 AM

Introduction and Welcome Remarks
     Secretary James A. Baker, III
, Honorary Chair, Baker Institute


Opening Address
- H. E. Abdullah bin Hamad Al-Attiyah
     Minister of Energy and Industry, The State of Qatar
     "Gas Exports from the Gulf: The Perspective of a Major Player"

Opening Keynote - James Mulva, President and CEO, ConocoPhillips
     "Geopolitics of Gas: Supply Diversification and Security of Supply"

9:30 AM
Opening Plenary Session
     Ambassador Edward P. Djerejian, Director, Baker Institute
     "Importance of Analyzing Future Gas Markets"

Keynote Addresses:  
  Peter Hughes, Vice President, Strategy and Planning, BP Gas, Power and Renewables
"The Geo-Politics of Gas – Priorities for the Gas Economy"
Philip Dingle, President, ExxonMobil Gas & Power Marketing Company
Tomiyuki Kudo, President, Petroleum Energy Center of Japan
"LNG in Japan and Asia: History and Current Issues"

11:20 AM

Presentation
of Study Conclusions:





Gas Geopolitics through 2030
  Amy Myers Jaffe, Wallace Wilson Fellow for Energy Studies, Rice University
David Victor, Director, Program on Energy and Sustainable Development
Stanford University


12:00 PM
Luncheon
Keynote Address - H. E. Dr. Chakib Khelil
, Minister of Energy & Mines
     People's Democratic Republic of Algeria

  "The Gas Forum of Producing Countries"

1:45 PM
Session A: The Politics and Economics of New Major Gas Export Projects

Session Chair: Robert Card, President, Card Group LLC

Case Study Presentation - "Gas by Pipeline from Russia to Europe"
  David Victor, Director, Program on Energy and Sustainable Development
Stanford University
Nadejda Victor
, Research Fellow, Program on Energy and Sustainable Development,
Stanford University
Case Study Presentation - "Gas as LNG from Trinidad and Tobago to the U.S."
  James Ball, President and Chief Mentor, Gas Strategies Consulting Ltd. and
EconoMatters Ltd.
Rob Shepherd, Senior Associate Consultant, Gas Strategies Consulting Ltd.
Study Presentation - "World Gas Trade Model (WGTM); Forecasts of
  Major Suppliers"
  Peter Hartley, Chairman, Department of Economics, Rice University
Kenneth Medlock III
, Consultant and Visiting Professor, Department of Economics
Rice University
Jill Elise Nesbitt, Graduate Student, Economics, Rice University

Expert Panel:

  Peter Hughes, Vice President, Strategy and Planning, BP Gas, Power and Renewables
Bruce Kiely, Attorney, Baker Botts LLP
"Key Policy and Political Issues Facing LNG Project Development"
  John Hritcko, Jr., Vice President, Strategy & Development,
Shell US Gas & Power Company


4:00 PM

Session B: Market Shocks and Gas Supply Security

Session Chair: Larry Rosenblatt, Projects Interface Manager-Qatar Projects
     ExxonMobil Development Company
  

Study Presentation "A Gas Supplers' Cartel?"
  Amy Myers Jaffe, Wallace Wilson Fellow for Energy Studies, Rice University
Ronald Soligo, Professor, Department of Economics, Rice University
Case Study Presentation - "Exports from Turkmenistan to Russia and Europe"
  Martha Olcott, Senior Associate, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

Expert Panel:

  Mark R. Maddox, Acting Assistant Secretary, Office of Fossil Energy
U.S. Department of Energy     

Sara Banaszak, Director, Gas and Power Group, PFC Energy


5:45 PM
Cocktail Reception

Thursday, May 27, 2004

9:00 AM
Overview of Day One; Preview of Day Two

  Amy Myers Jaffe, Wallace Wilson Fellow for Energy Studies, Rice University
David Victor, Director, Program on Energy and Sustainable Development
Stanford University

9:15 AM

Session C: The Changing Structure of the World Gas Market

Session Chair - Philippe van Marcke de Lummen, Special Advisor to the President of      General Management, Energy Division of SUEZ, Tractebel S.A. and Chairman
     Tractebel LNG Trading S.A.

Case Study Presentation - "Gas Across the Mediterranean from Algeria
  to Italy"
  Mark Hayes, Research Fellow, Program on Energy and Sustainable Development
Stanford University
Case Study Presentation - "Gas as LNG from Trinidad and Tobago to
  the U.S."
(Part 2)
  James Ball, President and Chief Mentor, Gas Strategies Consulting Ltd. and
EconoMatters Ltd.
Rob Shepherd, Senior Associate Consultant, Gas Strategies Consulting Ltd.
Study Presentation - "World Gas Trade Model; Alternative Political Scenarios"
  Peter Hartley, Chairman, Department of Economics, Rice University
Kenneth Medlock III
, Consultant and Visiting Professor, Department of Economics
Rice University
Jill Elise Nesbitt, Graduate Student, Economics, Rice University

Expert Panel:

  Amos Avidan, Principal Vice President and Manager
Petroleum and Chemicals Technologies, Bechtel Corporation
"Developments in LNG and Pipeline"
  William Hauhe, Manager, Global LNG Market Development
ChevronTexaco Global Gas
"The Changing Structure of World Gas Markets:
  Natural Gas Trade and Its Benefits"
Ira Joseph, Director, International Gas, PIRA Energy
"The Future Structure of Global Gas Markets"
Steven J. Lowden, Senior Vice President, Business Development/Integrated Gas
Marathon Oil Company
"Economics and Politics of a Global Gas Business"
12:00 PM
Luncheon
Keynote Address - Congressman Francisco Xavier Salazar Diez de Sollano

     Chairman, Energy Commission, Mexican Chamber of Deputies
  "Natural Gas in Mexico"

1:45 PM
Session D: Political and Institutional Consequences of Major Gas Investments

Session Chair - James J. Barnes, Bonner Means Baker Research Fellow
      James A. Baker III Institute for Public Policy, Rice University

Case Study Presentation - "LNG exports from Arun to Japan"
  Steven Lewis, Senior Research Fellow in Asian Politics & Economy, Rice University
Fred R. von der Mehden, Professor Emeritus, Department of Political Science
Rice University
Case Study Presentation - "Gas trade in South America"
  David Mares, Professor of Political Science and International Relations, UCSD

Expert Panel:

  Assheton L. S. Carter, Director of Energy and Mining, Center for Environmental
Leadership in Busines
"Natural Gas Supply and Demand"
  Thomas Heller, Lewis Talbot & Nadine Hearn Shelton Professor of International
Legal Studies, Stanford Law School and Senior Fellow, Stanford Institute for
International Studies, Stanford University
"(Mis)-Governance and the Resource Abundance: Risks and
  Responsibilities"
  Mourad Belguedj, Principal Energy Specialist, Oil & Gas Policy Division, World Bank
"Political and Institutional Consequences of Major Gas Investment"


4:00 PM

Closing Plenary Session: Geopolitics and the Gas Business

  Amy Myers Jaffe, Wallace Wilson Fellow for Energy Studies, Rice University
David Victor, Director, Program on Energy and Sustainable Development
Stanford University

Expert Panel:

  James Jensen, President, Jensen Associates
Edward L. Morse, Executive Advisor, Hess Energy Trading Co., LLC (HETCO)


5:30 PM
Conference Close

 

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