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Experts to Discuss Changing Role of National Oil Companies in Energy Markets at Rice University
March 1-2, 2007

HOUSTON - (Feb. 22, 2007) - National oil companies play a dominant role in the world energy market. Rice University 's Baker Institute for Public Policy will host a conference March 1 and 2 on the changing strategies of the national oil companies in the Middle East, the former Soviet Union, Latin America, Africa and China .

A major Baker Institute Energy Forum study investigating the long-term geopolitical and economic implications of the growing influence of national oil companies on global energy markets will also be resented.

The conference, titled "The Changing Role of the National Oil Companies (NOCs) in International Energy Markets," will bring together government leaders and experts from industry and academia. Speakers will include James Mulva, chairman of the board and CEO of ConocoPhillips; Victor Zhikai Gao, senior vice president and general counsel/company secretary of CNOOC Ltd.; Edward Morse, managing director and chief energy economist at Lehman Brothers; Bader Al-Kashti, chairman and managing director of the Kuwait Foreign Petroleum Exploration Company; and Robert Hormats, vice chairman of Goldman Sachs.

Approximately 77 percent of the world's proven oil reserves are controlled by NOCs. U.S. - and European-based multinational oil companies now control less than 10 percent of the world's oil and gas resource base. Of the top 20 oil-producing companies in the world, 14 are NOCs or newly privatized NOCs. The Baker Institute Policy Report will examine the changing strategies and behavior of NOCs and how those changes will affect the future supply, security and pricing of oil.

Press Advisory: Baker Institute report weighs role of national oil companies

Baker Institute Report Details Growing Importance of National Oil Companies in Global Production

HOUSTON – (MARCH 1, 2007) – The vast proportion of rising world oil production over the next three decades will come from the operations of state-controlled national oil companies (NOCs), according to a new study released today by Rice University's James A. Baker III Institute for Public Policy. Already, NOCs have taken over as the world's top producers, surpassing the international majors that previously represented the world's largest oil-producing entities.

But the institute's empirical analysis shows that on average, NOCs that are fully government-owned and sell petroleum products at subsidized prices -- a grouping that includes the major NOCs of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) -- will be only 35 percent as technically efficient as a comparable firm that is privately held and has no obligation to sell refined products at discounted prices. While individual firms may vary in efficiency, on average government-held firms in general exhibit only 60 to 65 percent of the efficiency as the privately-held international oil majors. This means NOCs might have more difficulty replacing reserves and expanding oil production than the IOCs that were responsible for 40 percent of the increase in worldwide oil production capacity in the past 30 years.

The growing importance of NOCs to the global oil supply-demand balance will have great impact on future oil pricing and security trends, with important policy implications for consuming nations like the United States . Importing nations may need to adjust their national energy strategies to reduce vulnerability to changes or instability in NOC oil reserve reinvestment rates.

The study concludes that NOCs have a variety of noncommercial objectives that, while important to national goals, tend to interfere with the firms' ability to achieve technical efficiency and to maximize the overall value that could theoretically be obtained from their oil resources. These objectives include 1) oil wealth redistribution to society at large 2) foreign and strategic policy and alliance building 3) energy security, including assurance of domestic fuel supply and security of demand for producing countries 4) wealth creation for the nation 5) participation in national-level politics 6) industrialization and economic development.

The study consists of 13 case studies examining the history and operations of 15 different state-owned oil companies, including the state firms of China , Iraq , Kazakhstan , Russia , Iran , Nigeria , India , Indonesia , Malaysia , Saudi Arabia , Norway and Venezuela .

Click here for more on the conference, associated documents and presentations, and to view the webcast.

Click here for the published working papers and study executive summary.

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Experts to Discuss Changing Role of National Oil Companies in Energy Markets at Dubai Conference
March 12, 2007

HOUSTON – (March 7, 2007) – National oil companies play a dominant role in the world energy market. Rice University 's Baker Institute for Public Policy will host a conference March 12 in Dubai on the changing strategies of the national oil companies in the Middle East .

The conference, titled "The Changing Role of the National Oil Companies (NOCs) in International Energy Markets: Implications for the Middle East ," will bring together government leaders and experts from industry and academia.

Speakers will include James A. Baker III, former U.S. secretary of state and honorary chair of the James A. Baker III Institute for Public Policy; Mohamed Bin Dhaen Al Hamli, United Arab Emirates minister of energy and OPEC president; Abdullah Bin Hamad Al-Attiyah, Qatar's second deputy prime minister and minister of energy & industry and Sheikh Nawaf Saud Nasir Al-Sabah, deputy managing director and general counsel of the Kuwait Petroleum Corporation.

Approximately 77 percent of the world's proven oil reserves are controlled by NOCs. U.S.- and European-based multinational oil companies now control less than 10 percent of the world's oil and gas resource base. Of the top 20 oil-producing companies in the world, 14 are NOCs or newly privatized NOCs. The Baker Institute Policy Report will examine the changing strategies and behavior of NOCs and how those changes will affect the future supply, security and pricing of oil.

HOUSTON – (May 11, 2007) – A panel of experts will discuss ways to promote U.S. energy security at a forum May 14 at Rice University 's Baker Institute for Public Policy. The forum, titled "Searching for Energy Security,” will be open to the public.

The panel will address ways of reducing America 's dependence on imported oil from the perspective of the oil industry, alternative energy and political reality.

Speakers will include Richard Sears, vice president for exploration and deepwater technical evaluation with Royal Dutch Shell; Gal Luft, executive director of the Institute for the Analysis of Global Security; Terry Hallmark, director of political risk and policy assessment at IHS, an energy consulting and publishing firm; and Amy Myers Jaffe, the Wallace S. Wilson Fellow in Energy Studies at the Baker Institute.

Sears has significant domestic and international experience in oil and gas exploration and discovery, and he is a leading expert in the search for and development of deep-ocean hydrocarbon resources (water depths of more than 500 meters). Sears recently joined M.I.T.'s Laboratory for Energy and the Environment (LFEE) as a visiting scientist.

Based in Houston , Hallmark leads the political risk and policy assessment division at IHS. His expertise in geopolitics, energy security and the “above-ground risks” facing oil- and gas-exploration companies has culminated in an impressive record of accurately predicting future political events and contingencies.

In addition to his role at the Institute for the Analysis of Global Security (IAGS), Luft is co-chair of the Set America Free Coalition, an alliance of national security, environmental, labor and religious groups promoting ways to reduce U.S. dependence on foreign oil.

Jaffe served as a member of the reconstruction and economy working group of the Baker/Hamilton Iraq Study Group. Her research focuses on oil geopolitics, strategic energy policy and energy economics.

HOUSTON – (June 21, 2007) – Mark Finley, head of Energy Analysis for British Petroleum, will present BP's 56th Annual Statistical Review of World Energy at Rice University June 27. He will speak at 9 a.m. at Rice's Baker Institute for Public Policy.

Finley is responsible for BP's coverage of global energy markets as well as the annual BP Statistical Review of World Energy. He previously served as BP's senior U.S. economist in Washington . Finley has more than 20 years of private and public sector experience as an energy economist.

His presentation will include objective, globally consistent data on world energy markets. The Review is one of the most widely respected and authoritative publications in the field of energy economics, used for reference by the media, academia, world governments and energy companies.

Baker Institute Conference Looks at North American Natural Gas Market
November 16, 2007

HOUSTON -- (Nov. 12, 2007) -- Natural gas is rapidly moving from a commodity traded in regional markets to one that is traded globally. This will lead to an increased connectedness of markets in North America, Europe, Asia and Latin America . The implications are wide-ranging and important to policymakers, corporate planners and academicians.

The Energy Forum at Rice University's Baker Institute for Public Policy, along with the Center for Energy Economics at the University of Texas at Austin, will host a conference Nov. 16 on "Natural Gas in North America: Markets and Security."

The Energy Forum will address a series of difficult questions on the future of natural gas in North America and suggest appropriate frameworks for both market participants and policymakers to understand the risks associated with various outcomes.

Speakers at the event will include Karen Harbert, assistant secretary in the Office of Policy and International Affairs at the U.S. Department of Energy, Francisco Salazar, president of the Energy Regulatory Commission (CRE) of Mexico and Roland George, a member of the National Energy Board of Canada.

Four papers will be released at the conference, from two different studies by Baker Institute researchers. The first study, sponsored by the Independent Petroleum Association of America, poses questions about access to domestic resources and the growth of international trade in liquefied natural gas and what each means for security of supply.

The second study, undertaken with collaboration and support from McKinsey & Co., poses questions on potential market size, particularly about growth in natural gas demand for power generation and the relationship between crude oil and natural gas prices.

The Baker Institute Energy Forum will also present a report on the policy implications of the two studies.

The Energy Forum's North America Natural Gas program, led by Kenneth Medlock III, a fellow in energy studies at the Baker Institute, is actively engaged in research on various issues in natural gas markets both in North America and abroad. The Energy Forum's ongoing development of the Baker Institute World Gas Trade Model is at the forefront of research on natural gas markets.

Sen. John Kerry to keynote Rice University's Baker Institute conference on climate change
February 09, 2008

HOUSTON – (Jan. 24, 2008) – Sen. John Kerry will keynote Rice University's James A. Baker III Institute for Public Policy, the Energy & Environmental Systems Institute and the Shell Center for Sustainability climate change, politics and economics conference Feb. 9.

The conference, titled "Beyond Science: the Economics and Politics of Responding to Climate Change," will bring together leaders committed to educating the public about the impact of global warming and discuss their experiences in crafting public policy in this area. In particular, it will address alternative policies to constrain carbon in the environment. Some of those include taxation of carbon, creating pollution credits and creating regulations to cut carbon dioxide.

Sen. John Kerry, who has taken a lead by introducing legislation to reduce carbon emissions, will open the conference with a keynote address at 8 a.m. Saturday, Feb. 9.

Steve Koonin, the chief scientist at British Petroleum (BP), will deliver a noon keynote titled, "Corporate Green House Gas Policies." In addition, Timothy Killeen, director of the National Center for Atmospheric Research, will speak on the International Panel on Climate Change 2007 Report and Climate Change Modeling.

Kerry's appearance at Rice is timed to coincide with one of the nation's most influential energy conferences, CERAWeek, which begins Monday, Feb. 11. An industry conference on the future of energy, CERAWeek attracts more than 1,600 senior executives, policymakers and financial decision makers to Houston to gain new perspectives and insight into the global forces shaping the energy landscape.

Support for the Feb. 9 event at the Baker Institute was generously provided by the UK Science and Innovation Section, British Consulate-General Houston.

Sen. John Kerry available to media after keynote address
at Rice University's Baker Institute conference on climate change
February 09, 2008

HOUSTON – (Feb. 7, 2008) – U.S. Sen. John Kerry will be available to the news media after his keynote speech, "The Road from Bali: The Future of American Policy on Global Climate Change," at a conference at Rice University's James A. Baker III Institute for Public Policy Saturday, Feb. 9.

The Massachusetts Democrat, who has taken a lead by introducing legislation to reduce carbon emissions, will speak at 8 a.m. and will be available to answer reporters' questions after his speech.

The conference, titled "Beyond Science: the Economics and Politics of Responding to Climate Change," is sponsored by Rice's Baker Institute, the Energy and Environmental Systems Institute and the Shell Center for Sustainability. It will bring together leaders committed to educating the public about the impact of global warming and discuss their experiences in crafting public policy in this area. In particular, it will address alternative policies to constrain carbon in the environment. Some of those include taxation of carbon, creating pollution credits and creating regulations to cut carbon dioxide.

Steve Koonin, the chief scientist at British Petroleum (BP), will deliver a noon keynote titled "Corporate Green House Gas Policies."

Earlier, Timothy Killeen, director of the National Center for Atmospheric Research, will speak on the International Panel on Climate Change 2007 Report and Climate Change Modeling. Following Killeen's presentation, Rosina M. Bierbaum, dean and professor at the University of Michigan's School of Natural Resources and Environment, and John P. Holdren, the Teresa and John Heinz Professor of Environmental Policy at Harvard's Kennedy School of Government and director of the Woods Hole Research Center, will discuss "Confronting Climate Change: The Sigma Xi/U.N. Foundation Report."

Daniel Sperling, an adviser to the state of California on climate and transportation policy, will speak as a panelist at 10:25 on "The California Model for Combating Climate Change."

Dimitri Zenghelis, the lead economist on the Stern Report, the 2006 review of the economics of climate change, will appear on a panel at 1:30 p.m. that will address economic issues of climate change policy along with Scott Nyquist, who will be presenting a new study by McKinsey & Co. on the costs of reducing greenhouse gas emissions in the U.S.

Ernest J. Moniz, the Cecil and Ida Green Professor of Physics and Engineering Systems at Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) and the director of MIT's Energy Initiative, will be a panelist in another afternoon session on "Options for Dealing with Climate Change: Costs and Benefits."

Support for the Feb. 9 event at the Baker Institute was provided by the U.K. Science and Innovation Section, British Consulate-General Houston.

Click here for more on the conference, associated documents and presentations, and to view the webcast.

HOUSTON – (Feb. 7, 2008) – Energy experts at Rice University's Baker Institute for Public Policy argue that while new fuel economy standards set by the 2007 energy bill are a step in the right direction, they won't be sufficient to cut U.S. oil imports.

The analysis is contained in a document from the Baker Institute Energy Forum that answers frequently asked questions about the new U.S. energy bill.

The document also describes talk of energy independence as "ridiculous" and suggests it "may not even be a worthwhile goal."

The document, "U.S. Energy Policy FAQ: The U.S. Energy Mix, National Security and the Myths of Energy Independence," was prepared by Amy Myers Jaffe, the Wallace S. Wilson Fellow in Energy Studies at the Baker Institute; Kenneth Medlock, fellow in energy studies at the Baker Institute; and Lauren Smulcer, program associate at the Baker Institute Energy Forum. Click here to read the document.

The Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 was signed into law Dec. 19, 2007. It focused on automobile fuel economy, development of biofuels and energy efficiency in public buildings and lighting.

The bill mandates an increase in corporate average fuel economy standards (CAFE) to 35 miles per gallon for new automobiles by 2020, with first improvements required in passenger fleets by 2011. According to the authors, this new policy won't be enough to lower U.S. oil imports; rather, it will only be able to ameliorate the projected increase in U.S. oil imports over the next 10 years.

On the possibility of achieving total energy independence, the authors wrote, "Eliminating 12 million b/d of oil imports from our daily lives is not plausible." They analyzed the viability of other fuels like ethanol, wind, coal and nuclear.

The FAQ also addresses such issues as global oil production, uses of imported energy, alternative energy sources and the U.S. energy policy options.

The Baker Institute acknowledged the role of Shell Oil Company in providing public polling data on U.S. energy policy to aid the institute's effort to inform the public about energy use and national strategy.

HOUSTON – (Mar. 28, 2008)
BY FRANZ BROTZEN
Rice News staff

Will rising sea levels threaten residents of the Gulf Coast in the coming decades? Climate science and environmental experts will address the issue at a conference at the James A. Baker III Institute for Public Policy April 9.

The event, titled "Next Century Forecasted Sea Level Rise: What Does It Mean for Houston?" will begin at 6:30 p.m.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has concluded that the global mean sea level has risen at an average rate of 1 to 2 millimeters per year during the 20th century through thermal expansion of seawater and widespread loss of land ice. Moreover, satellite observations in the last decade show that the rate has increased since 1993 to more than 3 mm (about an eighth of an inch) per year. Global mean sea level is projected by IPCC to rise between another 100–220 mm (about 4 to 9 inches) by 2050. However, publications as recent as 2007 show that sea-level observations are tracking at the high end of the IPCC estimates and conclude that 80 cm (32 inches), and perhaps more than 1 m (39.5 inches), is the most likely global rise by 2100.

According to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, rising sea levels affect wetlands and other low-lying habitats, erode beaches, can increase flooding risks and may increase the salinity of rivers, bays and groundwater tables. Populations that inhabit small islands or low-lying coastal areas, according to the IPCC, “are at particular risk of severe social and economic effects from sea-level rise and storm surges. Sea-level rise will present a challenge to coastal areas and infrastructure."

Nearly two-thirds of humanity lives within approximately 90 miles of coastal waters. One-tenth of the global population and 13 percent of the world's urban population live in coastal areas that lie within just 10 meters (about 33 feet) above sea level.

In the United States, more than 50 percent of Americans live in 772 coastal counties. By 2025, nearly 75 percent of Americans are projected to be living near a coast, with population density doubling in some areas, such as Florida and California. An increase in extreme weather events is likely to exacerbate existing water management and control problems in low-lying coastal areas such as the U.S. Gulf Coast, where coastal agriculture, petrochemical plants, oil refineries and potable water systems could be threatened in the future.

Panelists at the April 9 Baker Institute event will present and discuss these issues and their implications for Houston.

Anny Cazenave, senior scientist at the Laboratoire d'Etudes en Géophysique et Océanographie Spatiale and a member of the French Academy of Sciences, will speak on "Present-Day Sea Level Rise: Current Understanding and Major Uncertainties." Philip B. Bedient, the Herman Brown Professor of Engineering at Rice University and Birnur Buzcu-Guven, postdoctoral research associate in civil and environmental engineering at Rice, will address "Climate Change and Its Potential Impacts on Severe Storms, Flooding and Water Supplies." And Alan C. Clark, director of the Metropolitan Planning Organization and manager of Transportation and Air Quality Programs for the Houston-Galveston Area Council, will speak on "Getting Prepared: Policy Implications for Houston in Transportation and Other Related Issues."

Amy Myers Jaffe, the Wallace S. Wilson Fellow in Energy Studies at the Baker Institute and associate director of the Rice Energy Program, will deliver the welcoming statement, and André W. Droxler, professor of Earth science at Rice and director of the Center for the Study of Environment and Society, will give introductory remarks.

The event is sponsored by the Baker Institute's Energy Forum in conjunction with Rice University's Center for the Study of Environment and Society and the Shell Center for Sustainability.

Click here for more on the conference, associated publications, and to view the webcast.

HOUSTON – (May 15, 2008) – In recent years, a growing scarcity of energy commodities worldwide has heightened concerns about key geopolitical risks and threats, such as conflict in the Middle East, terrorism and resource nationalism. However, a study to be released next week by Rice University's Baker Institute for Public Policy suggests that, taken individually, many of the risks driving the oil price premium may be less catastrophic than they seem at first glance.

The study, which was written in conjunction with the Institute of Energy Economics, Japan, analyzes several of the top current market risks, including the U.S.-Iranian conflict over Tehran's nuclear aspirations, Russia's aggressive natural gas strategies in Europe, resource nationalism in Latin America and international terrorism against oil facilities, among others. It concludes that dire predictions that markets cannot alone allocate the costs of these risks in a manner that would avoid wars among major nations are unfounded.

Nevertheless, the study warns that energy and financial markets still face a substantial threat from the ongoing petrodollar boom cycle. It also warns that the high speed of globalized market contagion means that any sudden collapse of asset bubbles in one part of the world could threaten the smooth operation of the entire global financial system, should proper economic policies not be put in place.

The study will be released at a conference at the James A. Baker III Institute for Public Policy, which will bring together senior policymakers, economists, academic specialists and industry professionals to discuss the geopolitical risks currently facing international energy markets and the global financial system.

The conference, titled "The Global Energy Market: Comprehensive Strategies to Meet Geopolitical and Financial Risks," will be held May 21 from 8:30 a.m. to 5 p.m. It is sponsored by the Baker Institute's Energy Forum.

Panelists will also investigate the consequences that such risks could pose to energy security, pricing and supply, as well as to the transparent and smooth operation of the global market for oil and natural gas trade and investment.

The Shell Distinguished Lecture Series keynote speaker will be Martin Feldstein, the George F. Baker Professor of Economics at Harvard University and president of the National Bureau of Economic Research. Feldstein's speech is titled "The U.S. Economy, Financial Markets and the Price of Oil."

The conference also features two keynote speakers: Thomas Fingar, deputy director of National Intelligence for Analysis and chairman of the National Intelligence Council; and Reuben Jeffery III, undersecretary for economic, energy and agricultural affairs and coordinator for international energy affairs at the U.S. Department of State.

Click here for more on the conference, associated documents and presentations, and to view the webcast.

Baker Institute study finds continuing upward pressure on retail gasoline prices

With the price of a barrel of oil hovering around $120, U.S. drivers can expect to pay more at the pump in the near future, according to a new study by Rice University's Baker Institute for Public Policy.

"There is room for retail gasoline prices to move up," said Kenneth Medlock III, a Baker Institute fellow in energy studies and one of the study's authors. While Medlock cautioned that seasonal variability and other factors could affect prices in the near term, he said gasoline could easily reach $4.20/gallon around the Memorial Day holiday, especially if demand spikes as it normally does.

The study, titled "U.S. Energy Policy and Transportation," is part of a series of working papers on "The Global Energy Market: Comprehensive Strategies to Meet Geopolitical and Financial Risks." It was co-authored by Medlock and Amy Myers Jaffe, the Wallace S. Wilson Fellow in Energy Studies at the Baker Institute.

"In the short term," the study found, "temporary demand and supply factors can cause gasoline prices to rise substantially. Given the shortage in refinery capacity in the United States, these short-run departures have been growing larger and more frequent. Demand has grown steadily, but U.S. refinery capacity has not kept pace. Thus, the U.S. market has become increasingly dependent on foreign gasoline imports. At the same time, growing demand elsewhere in the world means increased competition for gasoline, which, in turn, drives up the price to attract imports during high U.S. demand periods."

However, the study also warned against blaming the growing demand in other countries for the high fuel prices in the United States. "Many have pointed to growing demand in Asia as the culprit for higher prices," according to the study, "but the United States consumes 33 percent of the world's road transportation fuel and demand continues to grow. Thus, as American demand goes, so goes the world price of oil."

The only way to address high energy prices over the long term, the study's authors argued, is to curb U.S. demand growth. They call for "a combination of conservation, higher fuel efficiency, alternative fuels and greater domestic production capacity" to achieve "manageable and acceptable" gasoline prices in the future.

The Study papers and executive summary, including the paper on "U.S. Energy Policy and Transportation" may be obtained on the Energy Forum publication pages here.

HOUSTON – (June 16, 2008) – Rice University's Baker Institute for Public Policy, together with the Houston chapter of the United States Association for Energy Economics, will host the 57th annual Statistical Review of World Energy June 24. Mark Finley, BP America's general manager for global energy markets, will present the study's findings.

For 57 years, the BP Statistical Review of World Energy has provided high-quality, objective and globally consistent data on world energy markets. The Review is one of the most widely respected and authoritative publications in the field of energy economics and is used for reference by the media, academia, world governments and energy companies. A new edition is published every June.

Amy Myers Jaffe, the Wallace S. Wilson Fellow in Energy Studies at the Baker Institute for Public Policy, will give the welcoming remarks at 9 a.m. in the Kelly International Conference Facility at Rice University's Baker Hall.

Finley will then discuss the Statistical Review of World Energy. He is responsible for BP's coverage of global energy markets as well as the annual BP Statistical Review of World Energy. He previously served as a senior member of BP's economics team in London and Washington, D.C. Finley has more than 20 years of private and public sector experience as an energy economist. He is a Phi Beta Kappa graduate of the University of Michigan and holds graduate degrees from Northwestern University and The George Washington University.

Members of the news media who wish to attend should RSVP to Franz Brotzen at
franz.brotzen@rice.edu or 713-348-6775.

For directions to Baker Hall, go to <http://www.rice.edu/maps/maps.html> .

The event is hosted by the Baker Institute Energy Forum and the United States Association for Energy Economics.