4 ( T h e e m i s s i o n s a r i s e f r o m a 4 - f o l d p r o d u c t &
C = P x G D P / P x E / G D P x C / E
w h e r e C = c a r b o n c o n t e n t o f e m i t t e d C O 2 ( k i l o g r a m s ) ,
a n d t h e f o u r c o n t r i b u t i n g f a c t o r s a r e
P = p o p u l a t i o n , p e r s o n s
G D P / P = e c o n o m i c a c t i v i t y p e r p e r s o n , $ / p e r s
E / G D P = e n e r g y i n t e n s i t y o f e c o n o m i c a c t i v i t y , G J / $
C / E = c a r b o n i n t e n s i t y o f e n e r g y s u p p l y , k g / G J
F o r e x a m p l e , i n t h e y e a r 2 0 0 0 , t h e w o r l d f i g u r e s w e r e &
6 . 1 x 1 0 9 p e r s x $ 7 4 0 0 / p e r s x 0 . 0 1 G J / $ x 1 4 k g C / G J
= 6 . 4 x 1 0 1 2 k g C = 6 . 4 b i l l i o n t o n n e s C V ] ( 2 ` ( (
+ 3 * & @ 5 V ) Z W h e r e s t h e l e v e r a g e f o r r e d u c t i o n s i n t h e s e ? . . P O P U L A T I O N
L o w e r i s b e t t e r f o r l o t s o f r e a s o n s : 8 b i l l i o n p e o p l e i n 2 1 0 0 i s p r e f e r a b l e b y f a r t o 1 0 b i l l i o n .
R e d u c e d g r o w t h c a n b e a c h i e v e d b y m e a s u r e s t h a t a r e a t t r a c t i v e i n t h e i r o w n r i g h t ( e . g . , e d u c a t i o n , o p p o r t u n i t y , h e a l t h c a r e , r e p r o d u c t i v e r i g h t s f o r w o m e n ) .
G D P P E R P E R S O N
T h i s i s n o t a l e v e r t h a t m o s t p e o p l e w a n t t o u s e , b e c a u s e h i g h e r i s g e n e r a l l y a c c e p t e d t o b e b e t t e r .
B u t w e r e n o t g e t t i n g r i c h a s f a s t a s w e t h i n k i f G D P g r o w t h c o m e s a t t h e e x p e n s e o f t h e e n v i r o n m e n t a l u n d e r p i n n i n g s o f w e l l - b e i n g .
I n t e r n a l i z i n g e n v i r o n m e n t a l c o s t s o f e c o n o m i c g r o w t h ( i n c l u d i n g t h o s e o f c l i m a t e c h a n g e ) m a y s l o w t h a t g r o w t h a b i t . . . b u t n o t m u c h .
S o m e l i f e s t y l e c h a n g e s i n i n d u s t r i a l i z e d c o u n t r i e s c o u l d i n c r e a s e q u a l i t y o f l i f e e v e n t h o u g h t h e y r e d u c e d G D P .
q x | b e q W * * Leverage against CO2 emissions (continued) l +
d E N E R G Y I N T E N S I T Y O F G D P
G e t t i n g m o r e G D P o u t o f l e s s e n e r g y i . e . i n c r e a s i n g e n e r g y e f f i c i e n c y h a s b e e n a l o n g - t e r m t r e n d .
I t c o u l d b e a c c e l e r a t e d . I t e n t a i l s m o r e e f f i c i e n t c a r s , t r u c k s , p l a n e s , b u i l d i n g s , a p p l i a n c e s , m a n u f a c t u r i n g p r o c e s s e s . T h i s o p p o r t u n i t y o f f e r s t h e l a r g e s t , c h e a p e s t , f a s t e s t l e v e r a g e o n c a r b o n e m i s s i o n s .
C A R B O N I N T E N S I T Y O F E N E R G Y S U P P Y
T h i s r a t i o t o o h a s b e e n f a l l i n g , b u t m o r e s l o w l y t h a n e n e r g y i n t e n s i t y o f G D P . R e d u c i n g i t e n t a i l s c h a n g i n g &
t h e m i x o f f o s s i l & n o n - f o s s i l e n e r g y s o u r c e s ( m o s t i m p o r t a n t l y m o r e r e n e w a b l e s a n d / o r n u c l e a r )
a n d / o r t h e c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s o f f o s s i l - f u e l t e c h n o l o g i e s ( m o s t i m p o r t a n t l y w i t h c a r b o n c a p t u r e & s e q u e s t r a t i o n ) . ( ( ( ( f ] 0 I Options besides reducing fossil CO2 emissions < J > ^ - $ Reducing emissions of methane & soot % % T A n t h r o p o g e n i c m e t h a n e ( C H 4 ) c o m e s 3 0 % f r o m e n e r g y s y s t e m s , 3 0 % f r o m l i v e s t o c k , 2 5 % f r o m a g r i c u l t u r e , 1 5 % f r o m l a n d f i l l s & w a s t e t r e a t m e n t .
T e c h n i c a l m e a n s e x i s t f o r r e d u c i n g a l l o f t h e s e .
M e t h a n e s r e l a t i v e l y s h o r t a t m o s p h e r i c l i f e t i m e m e a n s e m i s s i o n s r e d u c t i o n s t r a n s l a t e q u i c k l y i n t o r e d u c e d c o n c e n t r a t i o n s , t h u s r e d u c e d f o r c i n g .
S o o t c o m e s f r o m 2 - s t r o k e & d i e s e l e n g i n e s a s w e l l a s f r o m t r a d i t i o n a l u s e s o f b i o m a s s f u e l s , a g r i c u l t u r a l b u r n i n g , a n d f o r e s t f i r e s .
T h e e n g i n e a n d b i o m a s s f u e l s e m i s s i o n s a r e a m e n a b l e t o s h a r p r e d u c t i o n b y t e c h n i c a l m e a n s .
T h e v e r y s h o r t a t m o s p h e r i c l i f e t i m e o f s o o t ( d a y s t o w e e k s ) m e a n s e m i s s i o n s r e d u c t i o n s t r a n s l a t e q u i c k l y i n t o r e d u c e d f o r c i n g .
q _ . " Removal of GHG from the atmosphere # # I n c r e a s i n g c a r b o n s t o r a g e i n t e r r e s t r i a l p l a n t s & s o i l s i s t h e b i g g e s t p o s s i b i l i t y i n t h i s c a t e g o r y .
T e c h n i q u e s a r e a f f o r e s t a t i o n , r e f o r e s t a t i o n , a v o i d e d d e f o r e s t a t i o n , i m p r o v e d m a n a g e m e n t o f a g r i c u l t u r a l s o i l s .
I P C C 3 r d A s s e s s m e n t o p t i m i s t i c a l l y e s t i m a t e d t o t a l p o t e n t i a l o f 1 0 0 b i l l i o n t o n n e s C u p t a k e b y 2 0 5 0 ( ~ 2 0 % o f B A U e m i s s i o n s )
O c e a n f e r t i l i z a t i o n t o i n c r e a s e c a r b o n u p t a k e b y p h y t o - p l a n k t o n c u r r e n t l y l o o k s q u e s t i o n a b l e b o t h i n t e r m s o f e f f i c a c y a n d i n t e r m s o f u n d e s i r e d s i d e e f f e c t s .
S c r u b b i n g C O 2 o u t o f t h e a t m o s p h e r e t e c h n o l o g i c a l l y a p p e a r s t o b e 5 - 1 0 t i m e s m o r e c o s t l y t h a n c a p t u r i n g i t b e f o r e e m i s s i o n a t p o w e r p l a n t s . e - 8 - u t 5 Y ` / & Geo-engineering to counter GHG forcing ' ' I n c r e a s i n g s u r f a c e r e f l e c t i v i t y t o c o o l t h e E a r t h
H u m a n s h a v e d o n e t h i s i n a d v e r t e n t l y b y d e f o r e s t a t i o n , d e s e r t i f i c a t i o n , b u t m o r e i s u n d e s i r a b l e .
R e f l e c t i v i t y o f m a n - m a d e s u r f a c e s ( b u i l d i n g s , r o a d s ) c a n b e i n c r e a s e d , b u t g l o b a l i m p a c t i s l i m i t e d b y s m a l l f r a c t i o n o f l a n d s u r f a c e u s e d f o r t h e s e p u r p o s e s ( ~ 2 % ) .
L a r g e - s c a l e a l t e r a t i o n o f r e f l e c t i v i t y o f o c e a n s w o u l d b e e x p e c t e d t o h a v e u n d e s i r e d c l i m a t o l o g i c a l & e c o l o g i c a l s i d e e f f e c t s .
I n c r e a s i n g t h e a t m o s p h e r e s r e f l e c t i v i t y b y i n j e c t i n g r e f l e c t i n g p a r t i c l e s i n t o t h e s t r a t o s p h e r e m i g h t b e a f f o r d a b l e ( & r e v e r s i b l e ) , b u t m i g h t d e p l e t e s t r a t o s p h e r i c o z o n e .
P l a c i n g r e f l e c t i n g m a t e r i a l s o r m i r r o r s i n E a r t h o r b i t ( o r a t t h e L a g r a n g i a n e q u i l i b r a t i o n p o i n t b e t w e e n t h e S u n a n d t h e E a r t h ) w o u l d b e s t a g g e r i n g l y e x p e n s i v e . t 2 M ( 6 k ,
U = SEG mitigation strategy N A i m t o a v o i d g l o b a l - a v e r a g e s u r f a c e t e m p e r a t u r e i n c r e a s e o f m o r e t h a n 2 - 2 . 5 C a b o v e p r e - i n d u s t r i a l
S t a r t w i t h w i n - w i n s o l u t i o n s t h o s e b r i n g i n g e c o n o m i c & e n v i r o n m e n t a l b e n e f i t s b e s i d e s c l i m a t e - c h a n g e m i t i g a t i o n - - i n c l u d i n g :
i n c r e a s i n g e f f i c i e n c y i n t h e t r a n s p o r t a t i o n , c o m m e r c i a l / r e s i d e n t i a l - b u i l d i n g , & i n d u s t r i a l s e c t o r s
a v o i d i n g d e f o r e s t a t i o n a n d p r o m o t i n g r e f o r e s t a t i o n & a f f o r e s t a t i o n
e x p a n d i n g u s e o f s e l e c t e d b i o f u e l s i n t r a n s p o r t a t i o n
A d d i n c e n t i v e s a n d / o r r e q u i r e m e n t s f o r n e e d e d s u p p l e m e n t a l m e a s u r e s t h a t a r e c o s t l i e r :
c a r b o n p r i c e t o p r o m o t e s h i f t t o r e n e w a b l e s , n u c l e a r
a d d i t i o n a l i n c e n t i v e s o r r e q u i r e m e n t s f o r C O 2 c a p t u r e & s e q u e s t r a t i o n a t c o a l p o w e r p l a n t s n n W n n W a . > ) SEG mitigation recommendations for the UN * * P r o m o t e t h r o u g h t h e U N F C C C a p o s t - 2 0 1 2 g l o b a l c l i m a t e - c h a n g e r e g i m e i n c o r p o r a t i n g
c o n c e n t r a t i o n t a r g e t s & e m i s s i o n s t r a j e c t o r i e s c o m p a t i b l e w i t h n o t e x c e e d i n g 2 - 2 . 5 C a b o v e p r e - i n d u s t r i a l T
p e r f o r m a n c e m e t r i c s s u i t a b l e f o r d e v e l o p i n g a s w e l l a s i n d u s t r i a l i z e d c o u n t r i e s
e a r l y i m p o s i t i o n o f p r i c e s o n C O 2 e m i s s i o n s e v e r y w h e r e
m e c h a n i s m s f o r C O 2 - r e v e n u e t r a n s f e r f r o m h i g h - i n c o m e , h i g h - e m i t t i n g c o u n t r i e s & c o n s u m e r s t o l o w - i n c o m e , l o w - e m i t t i n g o n e s
D r a w o n c a p a c i t i e s a n d c l o u t o f U N a g e n c i e s t o
P r o m o t e a 3 - 4 X i n c r e a s e i n g l o b a l p u b l i c / p r i v a t e i n v e s t m e n t s i n e n e r g y t e c h n o l o g y r e s e a r c h , d e v e l o p m e n t , d e m o n s t r a t i o n , a n d a c c e l e r a t e d d e p l o y m e n t , e m p h a s i z i n g p a r t n e r s h i p s .
A d v a n c e p u b l i c & p o l i c y - m a k e r e d u c a t i o n o n c l i m a t e - c h a n g e i m p a c t s & s o l u t i o n s r e l a t e d t o t h e a g e n c i e s m i s s i o n s . R n n n / n n R ' i / e 2 Some key references W UN Scientific Expert Group on Climate Change & Sustainable Development, Confronting Climate Change: Avoiding the Unmanageable and Managing the Unavoidable, United Nations Foundation, February 2007 http://www.unfoundation.org/SEG/
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Climate Change 2007: Mitigation. Summary for Policy Makers. May 2007. http://www.ipcc.ch/
KSG Belfer Center, Energy Technology Innovation Policy website: http://www.belfercenter.org/energy/
Woods Hole Research Center, Win-Win and REDD Presentations at the COP-13 Meeting in Bali: http://www.whrc.org/BaliReports/index.htm o 0 i < F H S , ! + < + $ < + d t B [ "
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Slide 1 John Holdren Lauren A Smulcer 76 Microsoft Office PowerPoint @ /oC @ =kُ@ t{ A G h g ,V ' & " WMFC <8 r
' Arial WP MathA Calibri 1_Default Design Default Design W The UN SEG Recommendations on Mitigation How to Avoid Unmanageable Climatic Disruption Approaches to mitigation % Approaches to mitigation (continued) Looking for leverage 3 Mitigation leverage: The sources of GHG emissions 4 Technical options for reducing fossil CO2 emissions . Wheres the leverage for reductions in these? + Leverage against CO2 emissions (continued) J Options besides reducing fossil CO2 emissions % Reducing emissions of methane & soot # Removal of GHG from the atmosphere ' Geo-engineering to counter GHG forcing SEG mitigation strategy * SEG mitigation recommendations for the UN R The Opportunity Addressing Climate Change and Advancing Sustainable Development Some key references Fonts Used Design Template
Slide Titles $ 8 @ _PID_HLINKS A ! h t t p : / / w w w . u n f o u n d a t i o n . o r g / S E G / h t t p : / / w w w . i p c c . c h / $ h t t p : / / w w w . b e l f e r c e n t e r . o r g / e n e r g y / * h t t p : / / w w w . w h r c . o r g / B a l i R e p o r t s / i n d e x . h t m ( _y Lauren A Smulcer L a u r e n A S m u l c e r
! " # $ % & ' ( ) * + , - . / 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 : ; < = > ? @ A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O P Q R S T U V W X Y Z [ \ ] ^ _ ` a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o p q r s t u v w x y z { | } ~
! " # $ % & ' ( ) * + , - . / 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 : ; < = > ? @ A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O P Q R S T U V W X Z [ \ ] ^ _ ` a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o p q r s t u v w x y z { | } ~ R o o t E n t r y dO ) P i c t u r e s C u r r e n t U s e r S u m m a r y I n f o r m a t i o n ( Y P o w e r P o i n t D o c u m e n t ( D o c u m e n t S u m m a r y I n f o r m a t i o n 8