Touring Post-Quake Pakistan

Northern Pakistan—devastated by a 7.6 magnitude earthquake in October—is vulnerable to even larger, more destructive quakes, according to a report released by a team of engineering experts, including Rice’s Ahmad Durrani.

Durrani, professor of civil and environmental engineering and an expert in design and construction of earthquake-resistant buildings, led an international team on a tour of earthquake-stricken parts of northern Pakistan.
The preliminary report on damage and rebuilding needs after the massive earthquake that killed more than 85,000 people in Kashmir drives home the reality that buildings, bridges, and other infrastructure must be rebuilt with future quakes in mind.

Ahmad Durrani

Durrani led the five-person team of quake experts on an 11-day tour of Kashmir in early November. The group, which included experts from the Mid-America Earthquake (MAE) Research Center at the University of Illinois–Urbana-Champaign, issued its preliminary findings in December.

“After reviewing the data, we are convinced that the biggest earthquakes in the region are yet to come,” says Amr Elnashai, director of MAE, citing theoretical studies that suggest a high probability of several earthquakes of magnitude 8.0 or higher in the future.

“We are still compiling the data from our visit,” Durrani says, “but there is clearly a need for rigorous redesign and reconstruction criteria that both takes advantage of available technologies and adapts them to the realities and circumstances of Pakistan.”

The team has been working with the U.S. and Pakistani governments to develop sound rebuilding strategies for the region and also attended the opening of a three-day workshop in Islamabad on long-term earthquake preparedness. Funded by the National Science Foundation, the March workshop brought together leading researchers from Pakistan and the United States.

Durrani, a native of Pakistan, says he knows many people who lost relatives in the quake, which destroyed entire communities and damaged roads, schools, hospitals, and thousands of homes.

The group’s preliminary report, “Kashmir Earthquake Quicklook,” is available online at www.rice.edu/kashmirearthquake.

—Jade Boyd